Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
